1. Nonresident portfolio flows to EM ex China are very weak, even as more and more countries bring covid relatively under control. EM financing needs are small by historical standards, which cushions somewhat the impact of capital outflows. w/

  2. 2 weeks ago lifted bans on exporting beef to China. The government had capped beef exports at half the normal volumes to "supposedly" tamp down fast-rising prices. Yet, I am not sure what that policy achieved. Compared to 2017 meat products are almost 6x more expensive

  3. The last two years, have been, beyond any doubt the noisiest in terms of capital flows to . We see that the variance of flows has increased significantly since even before the COVID shock. The latest selloff shows equivalent variance to the Delta rotation earlier in the year.

  4. We released our global forecasts today. Despite robust global growth of 5.8% and 4.8% in 2021-22, we see uneven and fragile prospects. We see EMs vulnerable due to the early withdrawal of monetary and fiscal support 1/2

  5. holds rate at min. More importantly: 1) dots not showing speedy tapering (first time we see 2024 expectations 2) Fed increasing considerably the repo facility 3) inflation expected to be stronger than before (yet nothing to get freaked about)

  6. Interestingly, at least one round of primaries MUST occur before the national elections. Which means that this process is unescapable, and any party wanting to run for the "real" elections HAS TO take part in these "primaries" even if the party only has a single candidate

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